Adaptive response rate single exponenthial soothing: $$F_{t+1}=\alpha Y_t + (1-\alpha)F_t$$ $$\alpha_{t+1} = \lvert\frac{A_t}{M_t}\rvert$$ $$A_t = \beta E_t +(1-\beta)A_{t-1}$$ $$M_t = \beta\lvert E_t\rvert + (1-\beta)M_{t-1}$$ $$E_t = Y_t - F_t$$ Initialize: $$F_2=Y_1, \alpha_2=\alpha_3=\alpha_4=\beta, A_1=M_1=0$$